Toplines
After trailing by 2% in a survey conducted in June, James Talarico now holds a 5% lead over Republican Ken Paxton (50-45) in a new SoCal Strategies Texas Poll of 649 likely voters. Despite this, incumbent governor Greg Abbott appears to be in a strong position in his quest for a fourth term, leading Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 52-44.
Senate Race
Since our last survey, nearly everything seems to be breaking in Talarico’s direction. His lead among independents grew from 10% to 45% and he is now picking off 12% of Republicans. While Ken Paxton has maintained most of his lead among white voters, Talarico expanded his advantage with Hispanic voters from 10% to 38%. Voters age 18-29 also back Talarico by 46%. While Talarico being at 50% suggests he is the strong favorite in the race, there is some evidence that points to the possibility of the margin tightening: much like the last poll, Republicans are less decided than Democrats. While 6% of respondents who said they backed Trump in 2024 are currently undecided in the senate race, the same can only be said of 1% of those who say they voted for Harris. To have a chance, Paxton will need to win nearly all of these voters and peel back a substantial portion of the 12% of Republicans who say they would vote for Talarico if the election were held today.
Gubernatorial Race
Despite Ken Paxton’s struggles, Governor Abbott still seems poised to win re-election. Though his margin has narrowed from our last survey, which had him up 12, he still leads Gina Hinojosa by 8%. The movement comes almost entirely from independent voters, who now break for Hinojosa after Abbott had a 50-40 lead among them in our last survey. Like Paxton, Abbott has also collapsed with Hispanic voters, but he offsets this with a sizeable 34% lead among Whites. Unlike in the senate race, the undecideds in the gubernatorial survey appear to lean left. Those who say they are yet to decide between Abbott and Hinojosa, but have made up their minds in the senate, break for James Talarico 2-1. So, while there is a large ticket split for now, an analysis of the undecideds suggests the races could converge as we get closer to November.
Methodology
Data Collection
The poll was conducted using an opt-in online panel from 9/12-9/13. Quotas were used for gender, race, and age in order to ensure a representative sample of the state of Texas. In order to ensure quality data, an attention check question, in addition to speed and straight-line tests were used to screen out bad respondents.
Likely Voter Screening
SoCal Strategies utilizes a probability based likely voter model. Each respondent is assigned a vote probability based on their vote history, self-reported likelihood to vote, and how much attention they are paying to the election. Probabilities are determined with the help of the Bonfire Voter File and various other studies relating to self-reported vote likelihood.
Weighting
The survey was weighted in two stages.
First, a vote probability base weight is assigned to every likely voter in the sample.
Second, we determine our raking targets by combining our modeling for a likely November electorate based on previous election data with the aggregated vote likelihood for each demographic group in the survey multiplied by that group’s percentage of the Texas voter file. The survey was weighted by age, sex, race, race/education, education, region, vote frequency, and recalled 2024 vote. Weights are applied using R.
I've got Abbott winning by double digits in the end (57%-40%).