Ken Paxton Leads Narrow Texas Senate Race, SoCal Strategies Poll Finds

The traditionally Republican state appears poised for its tightest race in years.

Toplines

Republican Ken Paxton leads Democrat James Talarico by 2% (49-47) in the Red Eagle Politics/SoCal Strategies poll of 800 Likely Texas Voters. The survey was conducted on June 21, 2026. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott is in a much stronger position, holding a commanding 54-42 lead over challenger Gina Hinojosa. In a hypothetical 2028 matchup, Vice President JD Vance leads California Governor Gavin Newsom by 10%.

Senate Race

While Ken Paxton leads the senate race by 2 points, Talarico wins independent voters by 10% in the survey, suggesting that Paxton may be saved by the fact that Texas still appears to be a red state in party identification. Talarico seems to be successful so far in his attempt to expand the Democratic coalition in Texas, as he is winning 25% of voters who backed John Cornyn in the Republican Primary. 2 positive signs for Paxton are that Republicans (4%) are more undecided than Democrats (1%), and voters care more about Talarico’s policies than Paxton’s scandals by a 39 point margin.

Gubernatorial

In the race for governor, Abbott seems destined to win an unprecedented 4th term. Abbott is running 10 points ahead of Paxton and losing Hispanic Voters by just 2%, nearly matching Donald Trump’s 2024 performance with the demographic in Texas.

President Trump

Despite backing Trump by 14% in 2024, Texas voters appear to soured on the President, as his approval is 7 points underwater (41-48). Trump’s drop in support is most severe among Hispanics, who he is 19 points down with after winning the group narrowly in 2024, according to the Fox News Voter Analysis.

Methodology

Data Collection

The poll was conducted using the CINT online panel. Quotas were used for gender, race, and age in order to ensure a representative sample of the state of Texas. Respondents were directed to the site Qualtrics and then re-directed following the completion of the survey. In order to ensure quality data, an attention check question, in addition to speed and straight-line tests were used to screen out bad respondents.

Likely Voter Screening

SoCal Strategies utilizes a probability based likely voter model. Each respondent is assigned a vote probability based on their vote history, self-reported likelihood to vote, and how much attention they are paying to the election. Probabilities are determined with the help of the Bonfire Voter File and various other studies relating to self-reported vote likelihood.

Weighting

The survey was weighted in two stages.

First, a vote probability base weight is assigned to every likely voter in the sample.

Second, we determine our raking targets by combining our modeling for a likely November electorate based on previous election data with the aggregated vote likelihood for each demographic group in the survey multiplied by that group’s percentage of the Texas voter file. Weights are applied using R.

Note: This survey was sponsored by Red Eagle Politics

Click here to view the crosstabs and weighting targets