Abdul El-Sayed leads Haley Stevens 56-39 in the Red Eagle Politics/SoCal Strategies poll of 437 likely Democratic primary voters. However, in a hypothetical general election matchup among 640 likely general election voters, El-Sayed trails presumptive Republican nominee Mike Rogers 42-41, while Stevens leads Rogers 44-42.
Democratic Primary
In what has been an extremely bitter Democratic primary, Abdul El-Sayed appears to be pulling away from his moderate opponent Haley Stevens. Despite an endorsement from Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Stevens trails in every statewide region with the exception of Oakland/Macomb. Her 50-44 lead among Black voters is completely offset by El-Sayed’s 23-point advantage among White voters and 49-point lead with Hispanic voters.
General Election Matchups
While El-Sayed garners more support in the primary, he is also having a more difficult time unifying the Democratic coalition for a general election against Republican Mike Rogers. Despite her 2-point lead overall, Stevens performs better in the matchup. El-Sayed trails Rogers 42-41, suggesting he faces challenges in consolidating Democratic support. His difficulty is evident among Stevens’ primary voters, from whom he only gets 57%. There is, however, reason for optimism: 19% of Harris 2024 voters are undecided in the El-Sayed matchup compared to just 8% in the Stevens matchup, suggesting potential room for persuasion. Regardless of whether these Democrats come home, El-Sayed clearly has significant work to do in courting moderate Democrats.
Stevens’ lead is within the margin of error, meaning nominating her would not guarantee a Democratic victory, though she appears better positioned than El-Sayed. However, she faces her own consolidation challenge, getting just 67% of primary voters who say they have or plan to vote for El-Sayed—a dynamic that potentially mirrors the progressive enthusiasm gap Kamala Harris faced in 2024.
Methodology
The survey was conducted between 7/28 and 7/30 and funded with a GoFundMe promoted by Red Eagle Politics. The margin of error is 4.7%, with a design effect of 1.2 in the Democratic Primary Survey, and 3.8% with a design effect of 1.3 in the General Election Survey.
SMS Sample
The SMS sample was constructed to target Democratic Primary Voters. The sample was composed of Modeled Democrats randomly drawn from a Michigan Statewide Voter File. After random selection, the sample was stratified to match statewide targets for age, sex, race, education, race by education, and region.
Online Sample
The online sample was built with quota sampling and filtered to include only registered voters. Young voters were oversampled to compensate for their underrepresentation in the text survey.
Fielding
The survey was fielded with a mixed mode design, combining P2P texting and an online panel. Texts were sent using P2P software between 5–7 PM with a condensed questionnaire to maximize response rates. The response rate for the text survey was 2.5%. The online panel portion was fielded following SMS completion. Partial respondents were included if they answered all likely voter and primary vote choice questions. For the general election matchups, respondents needed to complete both matchup items to be included in that analysis. Undecideds were asked to lean for the Democratic Primary only, not for the general election matchups.
Weighting—Likely Democratic Primary Electorate
The sample was weighted in two stages. First, vote probability weights were applied based on primary voting history and self-reported likelihood to vote, with verified early voters assigned 100% probability. Second, the sample was rake weighted by age, sex, race, education, race by education, vote frequency, and region to match targets derived from voter file analysis of Modeled Democrats.
Weighting—Likely General Electorate
All survey respondents were included. Weights were applied in two stages: first, vote probability weights based on voting history and self-reported likelihood; second, rake weights applied by age, sex, race, education, race by education, vote frequency, region, and recalled 2024 vote. The 2024 recalled vote was used as a baseline reference for registered voters but not as a direct target for reweighting to final 2024 election results.
